Climate pasts and futures paper scheduled for presentation at "Cognition and Evolution in Historical and Social Research" conference September 24th

My paper «Prospective Studies of Contested Climate Pasts and Futures» has been scheduled for oral presentation at the conference "Cognition and Evolution in Historical and Social Research", which takes place at Lund University, Sweden, September 23-24th, on Wednesday September 24th at 11.55–12.15, as part of session 5, «Contemporary society». The presentation will be given digitally.

Wonderful world festival: Contributions during 2 events, on future humanity and free will in animals

"Wonderful world - den nordiske festivalen for filosofi og vitenskap" (Wonderful world - the Nordic festival for philosophy and science) has been held, for the first time, at and around Tou in Stavanger over the 4 last days (June 1st to 4th). I have been part of the editorial board (redaksjonsråd) of the festival, as the only one representing the University of Stavanger there. 

I contributed to two events over the last few days:

* On Thursday June 1st I took part in panel discussion following Anders Sandberg´s introduction to the topic "Fremtidsmennesket?" (future man?). The panel also featured Leonora Onarheim Bergsjø and Einar Duenger Bøhn. Alexandra Esdaile chaired. Some 80 people attended.

* On Saturday June 3rd I took part in a panel discussion on the topic "Har dyr fri vilje? Og derfor rettigheter?" (Do animals have free will? And therefore rights?), and also introduced the topic. The panel also featured Norun Haugen and Lars Risan (chair). Some 40 people attended.

To discuss "future humans" at Wonderful world festival

I am scheduled to take part in a panel discussion at the philosophy and science festival "Wonderful world" which is to take place in Stavanger June 1st-4th, titled "Fremtidsmennesket?" (cf. description in the festival program), along with Anders Sandberg (who also offers a brief lecture/introduction), Leonora Onarheim Bergsjø and Einar Duenger Bøhn. Hannah Winter will chair the event, which takes place June 1st at 8-9 p.m. at Scene 2, Tou (in Stavanger, Norway).

Umwelt futurology article accepted for publication

I have been informed that my article "What can be known about future Umwelten?" has been accepted for publication in The American Journal of Semiotics, after a follow-up review of the revised version.

Keynes essay "2119" written and submitted to essay competition

Yesterday I wrote an essay entitled "2119" for an essay competition called by Norwegian daily Klassekampen and the Stavanger-based economics festival Kåkånomics. The framing of the competition is what the economy will look like in a hundred years (as Keynes discussed some 90 years ago).

Umwelt futurology paper accepted for presentation at World congress of semiotics, Buenes Aires

I have been notified that my abstract for the 14th world congress of semiotics, to be held in Buenes Aires in September, has been approved for oral presentation. My paper is titled "Umwelt futurology - What can be known about future Umwelten?"

Abstract for world congress of semiotics: "Umwelt futurology: What can be known about future Umwelten?"

I have just written and submitted the abstract below to the organizers of the 14th world congress of semiotics, to be held in Buenes Aires, Argentina in September.

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Umwelt futurology: What can be known about future Umwelten?

In the article “Umwelt trajectories” (Tønnessen 2014: 159) I defined an Umwelt trajectory as “the course through evolutionary (or cultural) time taken by the Umwelt of a creature, as defined by its changing relations with the Umwelten of other creatures.” The article also featured “a prolegomenon to Umwelt futurology, the study of future Umwelt trajectories” (ibid.). In this presentation I will take another step towards development of Umwelt futurology.

The notion of Umwelt trajectories builds on a relational understanding of living beings. An underlying premise is that when our lives change, it is chiefly due to changing relations to others. This might imply novel relations, broken relations, or relations that undergo fundamental or more superficial change. 

Umwelt theory, first developed by Jakob von Uexküll (1864-1944), has for the most part been applied in the study of currently living organisms. However, from a methodological point of view, it is also suitable for studies of past and future Umwelten, though this requires some modifications of the theoretical outlook. It also implies a greater degree of uncertainty or margin of error than studies of contemporary Umwelten.

Classical Umwelt theory relies on a combined study of physiology and observed behavior. In the study of future Umwelten (as well as past Umwelten), the physiology of a specific organism may be only partially known, and its behavior cannot be observed. The reason why we still can have some knowledge about future Umwelten, is that it is not the case that “anything goes” in the design of Umwelten. For a start, von Uexküll refers to four near-universal functional cycles, which are in operation in most organisms, and of these four, two must be assumed to be universal. This concerns the functional cycle of food, and that of the medium. In other words, any organism relates to something specific as food, and to something specific as its medium. All organisms with sexual reproduction furthermore operate with the functional cycle of the (sexual) partner, and all organisms capable of enmity with the functional cycle of the enemy. 

Assertions such as these constitute the “minimal Umwelt” with its basic features. The realm of the possible is further constrained by possible variations in physiology, the physiochemical conditions on Earth, and our astronomical circumstances concerning radiation, gravity, the composition of our atmosphere etc. Seen in context with various forecasts of future developments, this provides us with sufficient factual premises for outlining a workable Umwelt futurology. Key sources include forecasts from Earth Systems Science and climate modelling, as well as long-term economic and demographic forecasts.

While there are unavoidably several “unknowns” in the study of future Umwelten, there is also quite a lot that we can know with a substantial degree of certainty. Future Umwelten of particular theoretical interest include the Umwelten of new species, animal GMOs, resurrected species, and the human Umwelt.

Defining "utopian realism"

In an email exchange via the biosemiotics email list (web address now added to "Some related academic links", right margin) related to my recent blog post "Why I joined the ISCB", Edwina Taborsky asked me to define what I mean by "utopian realism", the name of this blog. My reply read like this:

[A] utopia is commonly understood as a desirable yet unachievable - impossible - future state, e.g. of a society. By "utopian realism", I mean an attitude to the state of the world that is realistic (e.g. attainable, likely) in the long term. In the short term, a state closely resembling status quo is typically what is most likely to occur. In the long term, however, it is often very unrealistic to envision a continuation of a state closely resembling status quo - and conversely, the possible future states of society etc. which we regard as totally unrealistic today, are often more likely to materialize in the long term than is the status quo. A utopian realist, then, is one who takes the long view, who has the courage to fight for desirable ideas and states of affairs (no matter how their short-term prospects look like), and who has the insight that the status quo is just a passing phenomenon.

Perspective articles?

I have been encouraged to present my take on the future of growth to a high-impact journal, and have decided to attempt to get a short perspective article published in Science. I will further attempt to get a perspective article on my notion of 'global species' published in Nature. Here, I would include a crucial precisation, or moderation, of my original claim, partly due to the intervention of my supervisor Kalevi Kull.

See also:
Growth, global species articles offered by Encyclopædia Britannica
Encyclopædia Britannica on The global species

The future on growth - on EconPapers

My article The future of growth is now available on EconPapers.

RePEc; MPRA

I have registered at the RePEc author service, which ties economists in to its bibliographical database. All RePEc material (articles, books, work papers etc.) is freely available - not just to registered users.

In the same process, I have registered the University of Tartu Faculty of Philosophy at RePEc - and I am making The statistician's guide to Utopia I: The future of growth available through the Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) (and in effect EconPapers).