Monday 26 August 2024

Fact-checking Norway´s Prime minister on Norway´s demographic future

Today I attended a lecture by Norway´s Prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre which was held at the University of Stavanger. Early on in the presentation, he made a false claim about Norway´s future demographic development, stating that in 2060, half of Norway´s population would be 65 years or older (see slide below). If that was indeed true, this would have been sensational - half the population will be in retirement age by 2060! But alas, it is a false claim, as is very clear if one reads the government's "Long-term Perspectives on the Norwegian Economy 2024" (Perspektivmeldingen 2024) which was presented earlier in August (particularly p. 8 and 172-174). In fact, less than 1/3 of the population is expected to be 67 years or older in 2060 - which means that twice as many will be younger than 67, compared to those 67 or older. 

I made the Prime minister aware of this during the Q & A session. In response, he said that if what I said was true, he apologized - but that "the challenge remains". Sure, but for any informed discussion about demographic challenges, we must start by getting the facts right.



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